Last year was truly a test of resilience for housing values and financial stability across the country. The performance of the housing market was stress tested under the pressure of rising interest rates, stretched affordability and the transition of many mortgage holders from low fixed rates, to high variable-rate loans.
Home values were not only resilient under these conditions, but reached new record highs in 2023.
Housing activity rebounded through early 2023 as buyers took advantage of lower prices, however towards the end of 2023 affordability constraints became more pressing, resulting in demand focusing more on the the middle-to-lower end of the price scale.
Housing values made a full recovery through 2023, following a short, sharp decline of -7.5% between May 2022 and January. Nationally, home values rose 8.3% from the low in January, and increased 7.0% in the year to November, 2024. This was the equivalent of an annual uplift in the median home value of $49,583, to $753,564.
Investors Flocking To Regional Areas
There’s been a significant shift in how Australians think about where to live. Many city dwellers, who had never really considered moving to regional areas before, suddenly embraced the idea in large numbers.
Motivated by the prospect of getting more for their money and enjoying flexible work arrangements introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, people left the cities in large numbers.
Initially seen in those seeking a sea or tree change, this trend was simply amplified by value for money.
Figures show that populations in regional Australia increased by over 100,000 in FY22, the largest increase since 2009. This influx has profoundly impacted regional areas, leading to unprecedented job growth, increased investment, improved services, and better infrastructure, ultimately enhancing the overall quality of life.
Top Performing Regional Suburbs for 2023
Tralee, NSW – 34.2% (Annual Change) to $782,764 (Median)
Port Vincent, SA – 25.9% to $404,359
Angaston, SA – 23.9% to $573,883
Mount Morgan, QLD – 22.8% to $198,636
Kapunda, SA – 21.4% to $445,814
Barraba, NSW – 21.2% to 258,652
York, WA – 21.1% to $373,340
Green Head, WA – 21.0% to $378,433
Kingscote, SA – 20.8% to $434,232
Waroona, WA – 20.6% to $430,990
Top Performing Capital City Suburbs for 2023
Brookdale, WA – 32.8% to $474,532
Armadale, WA – 31.4% to $422,427
Hilbert, WA – 30.1% to $525,827
Ravenswood, WA – 29.2% to $630,258
Whitlam, ACT- 29.1% to $1,158,983
Camillo, WA – 27.3% to $440,749
Haynes, WA – 25.7% to $494,323
Bayview, NSW – 25.3% to $3,123,777
Seville Grove, WA – 25.2% to $540,983
Gosnells, WA – 25.1% to $475,030
What to expect in 2024
Home prices are expected to continue rising in 2024.
In addition to supporting factors like record net overseas migration, tight rental markets, low unemployment and home equity gains, the beginning of stage 3 tax cuts from the middle of 2024 could lead to increased demand for higher priced housing, according to industry experts.
Figures show that a higher share of borrowers with large deposits was one reason why prices in 2023 were so resilient in the face of higher interest rates. Many in the market in 2023 were buyers upgrading as a result of large equity boosts gained from the pandemic boom, which saw prices increase 36% from early 2020.
The latest PropTrack Outlook Report outlines forecasts for price growth in the year ahead, where it is expected national home prices will climb between 1.0% and 4.0% in 2024.
Population growth is set to remain strong and rental markets are also set to remain tight – this points to positive tailwinds for home prices according to expert commentators.
Ready to take advantage of a buoyant property market? Contact an Elders agent in your area here.