As we head toward the end of the year, Australia’s property market is doing what it often does best, which is slowing its pace without losing its footing.
The latest figures from Cotality point to a market that remains resilient, even as activity naturally cools in the lead-up to Christmas.
Prices are still rising nationally, buyer demand hasn’t vanished, and supply remains tight in most locations. What we’re seeing now isn’t a downturn, it’s a seasonal exhale.
The Big Picture: Prices Are Still Rising
National dwelling values rose by approximately 1.0 per cent in November, marking the third consecutive month of solid growth. Over the past year, Australian home values are now up approximately 7.5 per cent, which equates to an increase of around $61,000 on the median house price.
Over the most recent quarter alone, prices lifted 3.1 per cent, reinforcing that momentum has remained intact throughout spring. As a result, the total value of Australia’s residential property market is now estimated at around $12.2 trillion.
This isn’t runaway growth, but a broad-based, persistent growth that has held up despite affordability pressures and higher interest rates.
Why the Market Has Stayed Resilient
A major reason prices have continued to rise is ongoing supply constraints. Total advertised housing stock nationally is sitting around 14 per cent lower than this time last year and approximately 18 per cent below the five-year average for spring.
In simple terms, there are still fewer homes for sale than buyers would like and that imbalance continues to support values.
Rental conditions are also playing a role. National rents are up approximately 5.0 per cent over the past year, which continues to underpin investor demand and reinforces the value proposition of well-located investment properties.
That said, affordability is clearly stretched. The ratio of dwelling values to household incomes is sitting at record highs, which is one reason price growth has become more uneven across different cities.
Auction Activity: Cooling Into the Holidays
The auction market is showing clear signs of seasonal slowing, which is entirely normal for this time of year.
The latest Property Market Indicator Summary shows the combined capital city preliminary clearance rate easing back to around 63.5 per cent. That’s down from the stronger spring results but still comfortably above levels associated with declining prices.
Auction volumes are also falling. In early December, around 3,200 homes were taken to auction nationally, and that number is expected to drop sharply as we move closer to Christmas, with fewer than 1,200 auctions anticipated just before the holiday shutdown.
By city:
- Sydney is tracking around 5 per cent
- Melbourne near 5 per cent
- Brisbane has eased to around 7 per cent
- Adelaide remains stronger at approximately 9 per cent
- Perth is holding near 3 per cent
These figures point to a market that’s becoming more balanced, not one that’s rolling over.
A Clear Divide Between Capital Cities
One of the strongest themes in the latest data is how differently Australia’s capital cities are performing.
Perth continues to lead the pack, recording monthly growth of around 2.4 per cent, the strongest of all capitals. Homes are selling quickly, supply remains extremely tight, and buyer competition is still intense.
Adelaide and Brisbane are also performing strongly, with monthly price growth in the range of 1.7 to 2.2 per cent. Both cities continue to benefit from relative affordability and steady demand.
Sydney and Melbourne, while still recording growth, are clearly moving at a slower pace. Recent monthly increases have been closer to 0.1 to 0.5 per cent in Sydney and 0.2 to 0.3 per cent in Melbourne, reflecting affordability constraints and higher stock levels compared to other capitals.
Smaller markets such as Canberra, Darwin and Hobart are showing more modest and stable conditions, with less volatility and thinner transaction volumes.
What the RBA’s Latest Decision Means for Property
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.60 per cent has provided a welcome sense of stability heading into year-end.
For borrowers, this means repayments are predictable. For buyers, it allows clearer budgeting and planning. And for the broader market, it removes the uncertainty that often stalls activity.
However, the RBA has made it clear that future decisions will remain data-dependent. Inflation and employment figures early in the new year will play a critical role in shaping expectations for 2026, and markets remain alert to the possibility of further movement, in either direction.
What Typically Happens Over Christmas
December and January are traditionally quieter months for property, and the current data suggests this pattern is holding.
Listings usually fall away as sellers wait until late January or February to launch campaigns. Buyer numbers also dip, but those who remain active tend to be motivated and well-prepared.
With fewer properties on the market, prices often hold steady or edge slightly higher, even though transaction volumes fall. Any meaningful shifts in momentum usually occur once listings return in force after the holiday break.
What This Means Heading Into the New Year
As we close out the year, the Australian property market remains:
- Price-positive nationally
- Highly varied city-to-city
- Supported by low supply
- Moderating rather than weakening
The early months of the new year will be shaped by how quickly listings rebound, how buyers respond to affordability pressures, and what incoming economic data means for interest rates.
What to know more about where your property fits into the current conditions? Contact an Elders Expert in your area here.